Midterm Years - Money Weekly Newsletter from alooola®
- Mar 17
- 2 min read
Midterm Years
March 17, 2026
Midterm years tend to bring more downside volatility. The S&P 500’s median peak-to-trough decline is around 18% during midterm years (vs ~10% in non-midterm years), with 10%+ corrections occurring ~70% of the time. *1
Microsoft has fallen ~28% since July, erasing ~$1T in market value as AI concerns drive sentiment. This is its cheapest MSFT stock has been relative to the S&P 500 in a decade, a level last seen in January 2023 before a ~73% rally over the following 12 months. *2
Tax refunds are rising, with the average refund ~$3,742, up more than 10% year over year. 3
Adjustable-rate mortgages are gaining popularity, with nearly half of $1M+ mortgages now ARMs. An ARM mortgage offering ~5.3% rates vs ~6.1% for a 30-year fixed mortgage would save someone around $500/month on a $1M loan. 4
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alooola® is an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Material presented is for informational purposes only, and is not meant to be advice to any individual. Talk with alooola® to see how this information may apply to you. Consider your current financial situation, tolerance for risk, and investment objectives before you invest funds in securities through alooola®. For a more complete explanation of the alooola® service, please visit www.alooola.com. Information presented, including past performance of various sectors, vehicles, and indices is not to be construed as a forecast or guarantee of future results. Actual results, performance, or events may differ materially from those expressed or implied herein, and all investments are subject to risk, including loss of principal.
Sources:
MFS – “Beyond the News”
Barron’s – “Microsoft Stock Hasn’t Been This Cheap in a Decade. It’s Time to Buy.”
Barron’s – “Tax Refunds Are Bigger This Year. How to Invest It Wisely.”
MarketWatch – “Nearly half of new $1M+ mortgages are ARMs”
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance
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